Statistical overview
Every figure below covers complete years only, from 1995 through 2025. The current year is left out until it is finished, because a part-season is both a smaller sample and a lopsided one — this section rewrites itself each January.
Across the last 1,000 men’s fights the forearm choke finished 0 against 0.7 its earlier rate predicts — 0.00 per 100 fights against 0.07 before. It sits below our threshold for calling a trend shift, though. On 0 finishes in a window this size, a run like this turns up often enough by chance that we will not call the underlying rate changed — a genuine move and a good spell look the same until more fights land. Worth watching rather than worth re-planning a camp around.
And over the long run
The forearm choke first appears in 1995. That is a real difference — 0.4 points less of the modern game than it used to be, and big enough that chance does not explain it.
That is a real difference — 0.4 points less of the modern game than it used to be, and big enough that chance does not explain it.
0.0% against 0.4% · 0 of 448 · 95% range −0.8 to −0.1 points
95% range −100% to 659% · 2024-06-28 to 2026-09-19, men’s divisions. Measured as the rate at which the forearm choke ends a fight, not its share of submissions — share moves whenever the overall submission rate moves.
forearm choke every other submission
100.0% of these finishes come in the first round, against 50.9% for every other submission. That looks like a gap, but on 5 it is well inside what chance alone would produce. Treat the two as the same. Within the round itself the median comes at 2:55 against 2:52 — 3 seconds later.
The forearm choke is at its weakest in welterweight and middleweight at 0.0%, 0.4 points below the rest of the sport, interval −0.8 to −0.1.
Across the women’s divisions the forearm choke accounts for 0.0% of submissions — 0 of 168 — against 0.3% everywhere else. That looks like a gap, but on 168 it is well inside what chance alone would produce. Treat the two as the same. That said, the women’s sample is 168 submissions in total, so it moves on a handful of fights in a way the men’s does not.
A spike
That year’s submission volume predicted 0.0. Judged against the year’s own volume rather than the raw count, and against a bar raised for the number of years looked at, so a busy year is not mistaken for an unusual one.
See 1996 →Share of all 1,716 submission finishes
Rear Naked Choke39.2%672Guillotine Choke17.7%303Armbar11.7%200Arm Triangle7.9%135Triangle Choke5.5%95D'Arce Choke2.9%50Kimura2.7%46Anaconda Choke2.3%39
