A missing year
2019: not once, all year
The second blank year in the 19 since it first appeared, and the first since 2008. That year’s submission volume predicted 2.3.
See 2019 →Statistical overview
Every figure below covers complete years only, from 2007 through 2025. The current year is left out until it is finished, because a part-season is both a smaller sample and a lopsided one — this section rewrites itself each January.
Across the last 1,000 men’s fights the d'arce choke finished 7 against 5.8 its earlier rate predicts — 0.70 per 100 fights against 0.57 before. It sits below our threshold for calling a trend shift, though. On 7 finishes in a window this size, a run like this turns up often enough by chance that we will not call the underlying rate changed — a genuine move and a good spell look the same until more fights land. Worth watching rather than worth re-planning a camp around.
And over the long run
The d'arce choke first appears in 2007. That looks like a gap, but on 448 it is well inside what chance alone would produce. Treat the two as the same. Over five years it is holding roughly the share it always had.
That looks like a gap, but on 448 it is well inside what chance alone would produce. Treat the two as the same.
4.2% against 2.3% · 19 of 448 · 95% range −0.2 to 4.0 points
95% range −54% to 175% · 2024-06-28 to 2026-09-19, men’s divisions. Measured as the rate at which the d'arce choke ends a fight, not its share of submissions — share moves whenever the overall submission rate moves.
d'arce choke every other submission
38.3% of these finishes come in the first round, against 51.5% for every other submission. That looks like a gap, but on 47 it is well inside what chance alone would produce. Treat the two as the same. Within the round itself the median comes at 2:45 against 2:52 — 7 seconds earlier.
The d'arce choke is at its strongest in featherweight and lightweight, taking 4.5% of the submissions there against 2.3% elsewhere — 2.2 points clear, interval 0.1 to 4.3. It is weakest in light heavyweight and heavyweight at 0.8%, 2.4 points below the rest of the sport, interval −3.8 to −0.9.
Across the women’s divisions the d'arce choke accounts for 1.8% of submissions — 3 of 168 — against 3.0% everywhere else. That looks like a gap, but on 168 it is well inside what chance alone would produce. Treat the two as the same. That said, the women’s sample is 168 submissions in total, so it moves on a handful of fights in a way the men’s does not.
A missing year
The second blank year in the 19 since it first appeared, and the first since 2008. That year’s submission volume predicted 2.3.
See 2019 →Share of all 1,716 submission finishes
Rear Naked Choke39.2%672Guillotine Choke17.7%303Armbar11.7%200Arm Triangle7.9%135Triangle Choke5.5%95D'Arce Choke2.9%50Kimura2.7%46Anaconda Choke2.3%39
Axel Soladef. Ismael BonfimJul 2026
Paddy Pimblettdef. Benoit Saint DenisJul 2026
Jackson McVeydef. Sedriques DumasApr 2026
Kyle Daukausdef. Gerald MeerschaertNov 2025
Neil Magnydef. Jake MatthewsSep 2025
Gabriel Bonfimdef. Khaos WilliamsFeb 2025
Islam Makhachevdef. Renato MoicanoJan 2025
Jasmine Jasudaviciusdef. Ariane da SilvaNov 2024
Islam Makhachevdef. Dustin PoirierMay 2024
Chase Hooperdef. Viacheslav BorshchevMay 2024
Fernando Padilladef. Luis PajueloMar 2024
Kevin Hollanddef. Michael ChiesaJul 2023
Joel Alvarezdef. Marc DiakieseJul 2023
Neil Magnydef. Daniel RodriguezNov 2022
Khamzat Chimaevdef. Kevin HollandSep 2022
Kevin Hollanddef. Tim MeansJun 2022
Karine Silvadef. Poliana BotelhoJun 2022
Kyle Daukausdef. Jamie PickettFeb 2022
Julian Erosadef. Charles JourdainSep 2021
Vicente Luquedef. Michael ChiesaAug 2021
Christos Giagosdef. Sean SorianoMay 2021
Vicente Luquedef. Tyron WoodleyMar 2021
Khamzat Chimaevdef. John PhillipsJul 2020
Julian Erosadef. Sean WoodsonJun 2020
Montel Jacksondef. Brian KelleherDec 2018
Tyron Woodleydef. Darren TillSep 2018
Nathaniel Wooddef. Johnny EduardoMay 2018
Vicente Luquedef. Niko PriceOct 2017
James Vickdef. Abel TrujilloFeb 2017
Jason Gonzalezdef. JC CottrellJan 2017
Stefan Struvedef. Daniel OmielanczukOct 2016
Chas Skellydef. Maximo BlancoSep 2016
Tony Fergusondef. Lando VannataJul 2016
Tatiana Suarezdef. Amanda CooperJul 2016
Vicente Luquedef. Alvaro Herrera MendozaJul 2016
Tony Fergusondef. Edson BarbozaDec 2015
Charles Rosadef. Sean SorianoJan 2015
Mitch Clarkedef. Al IaquintaMay 2014
Tony Fergusondef. Mike RioOct 2013
Brendan Schaubdef. Matt MitrioneSep 2013
Zak Cummingsdef. Ben AllowayAug 2013
Jorge Masvidaldef. Michael ChiesaJul 2013
Reza Madadidef. Michael JohnsonApr 2013
Dustin Poirierdef. Jonathan BrookinsDec 2012
Chan Sung Jungdef. Dustin PoirierMay 2012
Chris Weidmandef. Tom LawlorNov 2011
Dustin Poirierdef. Pablo GarzaNov 2011
Paulo Thiagodef. Mike SwickFeb 2010
Terry Etimdef. Justin BuchholzJun 2009
Kendall Grovedef. Alan BelcherApr 2007