A missing year
2001: not once, all year
The second blank year in the 32 since it first appeared, and the first since 1998. That year’s submission volume predicted 3.1.
See 2001 →Statistical overview
Every figure below covers complete years only, from 1994 through 2025. The current year is left out until it is finished, because a part-season is both a smaller sample and a lopsided one — this section rewrites itself each January.
Across the last 1,000 men’s fights the rear naked choke finished 66 against 75.3 its earlier rate predicts — 6.60 per 100 fights against 7.53 before. It sits below our threshold for calling a trend shift, though. On 66 finishes in a window this size, a run like this turns up often enough by chance that we will not call the underlying rate changed — a genuine move and a good spell look the same until more fights land. Worth watching rather than worth re-planning a camp around.
And over the long run
The rear naked choke first appears in 1994. That is a real difference — 6.3 points more of the modern game than it used to be, and big enough that chance does not explain it.
That is a real difference — 6.3 points more of the modern game than it used to be, and big enough that chance does not explain it.
43.5% against 37.2% · 195 of 448 · 95% range 1.0 to 11.7 points
95% range −33% to 13% · 2024-06-28 to 2026-09-19, men’s divisions. Measured as the rate at which the rear naked choke ends a fight, not its share of submissions — share moves whenever the overall submission rate moves.
rear naked choke every other submission
43.9% of these finishes come in the first round, against 55.7% for every other submission. That is a real difference — 11.8 points later than the rest, and big enough that chance does not explain it. Within the round itself the median comes at 2:57 against 2:48 — 9 seconds later.
The rear naked choke is at its strongest in featherweight and lightweight, taking 43.5% of the submissions there against 37.2% elsewhere — 6.3 points clear, interval 0.9 to 11.6. It is weakest in light heavyweight and heavyweight at 30.0%, 10.5 points below the rest of the sport, interval −16.8 to −4.1.
Across the women’s divisions the rear naked choke accounts for 44.6% of submissions — 75 of 168 — against 38.3% everywhere else. That looks like a gap, but on 168 it is well inside what chance alone would produce. Treat the two as the same. That said, the women’s sample is 168 submissions in total, so it moves on a handful of fights in a way the men’s does not.
A missing year
The second blank year in the 32 since it first appeared, and the first since 1998. That year’s submission volume predicted 3.1.
See 2001 →Share of all 1,716 submission finishes
Rear Naked Choke39.2%672Guillotine Choke17.7%303Armbar11.7%200Arm Triangle7.9%135Triangle Choke5.5%95D'Arce Choke2.9%50Kimura2.7%46Anaconda Choke2.3%39
Kurtis Campbelldef. Trevor PeekSep 2026
Delphine Benouaichdef. Sofia MontenegroSep 2026
Rei Tsuruyadef. Kevin BorjasAug 2026
Dustin Stoltzfusdef. Mansur Abdul-MalikAug 2026
Juliana Millerdef. Ravena OliveiraAug 2026
Quillan Salkillddef. Mateusz GamrotAug 2026
Stephanie Lucianodef. Marina SpasicAug 2026
Noah Gugnondef. Milos JanicicAug 2026
Chase Hooperdef. Mitch RamirezJul 2026
Dione Barbosadef. Anna MelisanoJul 2026
Alessandro Costadef. Cody DurdenJul 2026
Brandon Royvaldef. Lone'er KavanaghJul 2026
Nursulton Ruziboevdef. Andrey PulyaevJun 2026
Edgar Chairezdef. Bruno SilvaJun 2026
Rei Tsuruyadef. Luis GuruleMay 2026
Benardo Sopajdef. Timmy CuambaMay 2026
Juan Diazdef. Malcolm WellmakerMay 2026
King Greendef. Jeremy StephensMay 2026
Baisangur Susurkaevdef. Djorden SantosMay 2026
Grant Dawsondef. Mateusz RebeckiMay 2026
Robert Valentindef. Julien LeblancApr 2026
Tatiana Suarezdef. Loopy GodinezApr 2026
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaevdef. Brendson RibeiroApr 2026
Renato Moicanodef. Chris DuncanApr 2026
Michael Chiesadef. Niko PriceMar 2026
Elijah Smithdef. SuYoung YouMar 2026
Bia Mesquitadef. Montse RendonMar 2026
Francis Marshalldef. Erik SilvaFeb 2026
Joselyne Edwardsdef. Nora CornolleFeb 2026
Mario Bautistadef. Vinicius OliveiraFeb 2026
Jonathan Micallefdef. Oban ElliottJan 2026
Billy Elekanadef. Junior TafaJan 2026
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaevdef. Rafael CerqueiraNov 2025
Kyoji Horiguchidef. Tagir UlanbekovNov 2025
Erin Blanchfielddef. Tracy CortezNov 2025
Daniel Marcosdef. Miles JohnsNov 2025
Zach Reesedef. Jackson McVeyNov 2025
Charles Radtkedef. Daniel FrunzaNov 2025
Yadier del Valledef. Isaac DulgarianNov 2025
Talita Alencardef. Ariane CarnelossiNov 2025
Billy Elekanadef. Kevin ChristianNov 2025
Stephanie Lucianodef. Ravena OliveiraOct 2025
Bruno Silvadef. HyunSung ParkOct 2025
Charles Oliveiradef. Mateusz GamrotOct 2025
Kaan Oflidef. Ricardo RamosOct 2025
Bia Mesquitadef. Irina AlekseevaOct 2025
Joe Pyferdef. Abus MagomedovOct 2025
Jimmy Crutedef. Ivan ErslanSep 2025
Tom Nolandef. Charlie CampbellSep 2025
Dusko Todorovicdef. Jose Daniel MedinaSep 2025
Benoit Saint Denisdef. Mauricio RuffySep 2025
Sam Hughesdef. Shauna BannonSep 2025
Baisangur Susurkaevdef. Eric NolanAug 2025
Anthony Hernandezdef. Roman DolidzeAug 2025
Austin Bashidef. John YannisAug 2025
Jake Matthewsdef. Chidi NjokuaniJul 2025
Vitor Petrinodef. Austen LaneJul 2025
Alexandre Pantojadef. Kai Kara-FranceJun 2025
Jacobe Smithdef. Niko PriceJun 2025
Yadier del Valledef. Connor MatthewsMay 2025Showing the 60 most recent of 672 finishes