Scarf Hold
Year by Year
7 Years with a FinishStatistical overview
The 16th most used submission in the UFC
Every figure below covers complete years only, from 1995 through 2025. The current year is left out until it is finished, because a part-season is both a smaller sample and a lopsided one — this section rewrites itself each January.
How’s it trending?
Across the last 1,000 men’s fights the scarf hold finished 0 against 1.0 its earlier rate predicts — 0.00 per 100 fights against 0.10 before. It sits below our threshold for calling a trend shift, though. On 0 finishes in a window this size, a run like this turns up often enough by chance that we will not call the underlying rate changed — a genuine move and a good spell look the same until more fights land. Worth watching rather than worth re-planning a camp around.
And over the long run
The scarf hold first appears in 1995. That looks like a gap, but on 448 it is well inside what chance alone would produce. Treat the two as the same. Over five years it is holding roughly the share it always had.
That looks like a gap, but on 448 it is well inside what chance alone would produce. Treat the two as the same.
0.2% against 0.5% · 1 of 448 · 95% range −0.9 to 0.3 points
95% range −100% to 383% · 2024-06-28 to 2026-09-19, men’s divisions. Measured as the rate at which the scarf hold ends a fight, not its share of submissions — share moves whenever the overall submission rate moves.
When does the finish come?
scarf hold every other submission
85.7% of these finishes come in the first round, against 50.9% for every other submission. That looks like a gap, but on 7 it is well inside what chance alone would produce. Treat the two as the same. Within the round itself the median comes at 2:23 against 2:52 — 29 seconds earlier.
Does weightclass matter?
The scarf hold is at its weakest in featherweight and lightweight at 0.0%, 0.6 points below the rest of the sport, interval −1.0 to −0.2.
The men’s and women’s divisions
Across the women’s divisions the scarf hold accounts for 0.0% of submissions — 0 of 168 — against 0.5% everywhere else. That is a real difference — 0.5 points less of the women's game, and big enough that chance does not explain it. That said, the women’s sample is 168 submissions in total, so it moves on a handful of fights in a way the men’s does not.
Anything out of the ordinary
Nothing stands out. No year, card or fighter sits outside what the scarf hold’s own volume predicts — it arrives at a steady rate, spread across the roster, rather than in bursts belonging to one night or one person.
Submission Share
1,716 Submission FinishesShare of all 1,716 submission finishes
Rear Naked Choke39.2%672Guillotine Choke17.7%303Armbar11.7%200Arm Triangle7.9%135Triangle Choke5.5%95D'Arce Choke2.9%50Kimura2.7%46Anaconda Choke2.3%39
